PM Modi addressing conference of Tourism, Culture & Sports via video
NarendraModi.in
If India’s foreign policy is confronted with a volatile moment in its neighbourhood and beyond, Narendra Modi’s inaugural speech at the 2017 Raisina Dialogue hardly reflected it. A few hours before him, China’s president Xi Jinping had held forth on the virtues of globalisation from the World Economic Forum’s perch at Davos. In contrast, Modi chose to highlight India’s “transformative” potential, selling as he has done since taking office, New Delhi’s arrival on the world stage. Xi’s lecture seemed incredulous, but pundits have already begun to sing paeans anointing China as the new steward of the Washington Consensus. The Indian prime minister mercifully delivered a more sober assessment of geopolitics – “globalisation gains are at risk”, said Modi, and rightly left it at that – but his rosy vision for India’s external relations seemed boilerplate. The Raisina Dialogue was an opportunity for him to acknowledge that the initial years of his personality-driven diplomacy were over, and that it was now time for New Delhi to roll up its sleeves and consolidate its relations with major powers. Rather than gird Indian foreign policy for the unpredictable times that lie ahead, however, Narendra Modi relied once again on his “can do” narrative – whose utility and indeed, necessity, has dimmed since 2014.
Deliberative deficit
For one, the world no longer takes for granted India remaining as the bright spot in a bleak global economic environment. Demonetisation may not affect the prime minister’s political image at home, but abroad it has certainly cast a shadow on his government’s capacity to effect sound policies. A central plank of the government’s economic diplomacy has been to co-opt the private sector (foreign and domestic) into India’s growth story, but this is yet to produce significant results. Projecting Modi appetite for bold and risky decisions is therefore, not viable any longer as a diplomatic strategy. It had its moment in 2014 and soon thereafter, but India’s foreign policy cannot be centred around personalities when the demonetisation episode has exposed a deliberative deficit among India’s policy planners.
There are also other, external factors that call for a shift away from the government’s individual-driven diplomacy. Since coming to power, Narendra Modi has staked a great deal on his personal equations with the leaders of major powers, be it Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping. At the Raisina Dialogue, the prime minister highlighted his “long conversations” with these figures, and the promises they offered in return. For reasons that have little to do with New Delhi, few of those personal ties today have any major bearing on India’s foreign policy. Obama is out of office, replaced by a man whose hallmark strategy is to be as unpredictable as possible. Should this government continue to pursue India-US relations through leadership-level engagements alone, New Delhi will be in for a shock if Donald J. Trump reverses course on his Asia policies.
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